I really think we’re entering an inflection point where there is sufficient critical mass that makes it possible for countries to band together and resist the empire. And the war in Ukraine has been the catalyst for this. The west ended up being sucked into a conflict on a scale it simply wasn’t prepared for. A huge chunk of the existing western military assets ended up being committed to Ukraine which necessarily weakened western grip on the west of the world. Meanwhile, the economic war on Russia resulted in the creation of a whole new economy that’s operating outside western control. BRICS is now a bigger economic bloc than the entire G7, and this trend will only accelerate now.
If we look to history, the USA should end up enacting military production mandates through a more overtly fascist formation. I question whether the USA has sufficient industrial capacity, even under centralized management, to make a difference. Clearly the USA has the fuel production capacity, as it’s become one of the largest producers in the last few years.
There’s a possibility that Mexico might have more manufacturing that the USA could appropriate for weapons production, but I still don’t think it would be enough.
Additionally, a fascist formation in the USA would be incredibly difficult due to the way the population is sprawled out. Brown shirts are only going to be effective in cities, which is exactly where the greatest population of resistance fighters will be. In the sprawl, it’ll be roving militias and vigilantes, but they will have to be incorporated with military intelligence to be effective at finding and disrupting resistance.
In short, unlike past movements, I don’t think the USA has a path out even through overt fascism.
Brown shirts are only going to be effective in cities, which is exactly where the greatest population of resistance fighters will be.
That assumes there are organized and armed groups to even become resistance fighters. The US, and most of the world, doesn’t have the same growing, disciplined Communist organizing like it did pre- and even post-WW2. I don’t think there would be any meaningful armed resistance in US cities that could outlast even their own militarized police, much less a concerted effort that included neo-Nazi paramilitaries.
Even mass protests in US cities include mostly liberals. Due to lack of organizing or pacifist/unarmed ideals, they will either surely die or just join the Right. It might not go down that path, but if it does and if you’re betting on a spontaneous resistance movement then you might just seal your fate.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Not_Fucking_Around_Coalition does exist. Black Panthers organized resistance, though they suffered exactly as you describe. I think that a brownshirt movement will force the creation of armed resistance movements. We’ve already seen how the existence of the white nationalist movements have created the conditions for anarchist and black movements for self-defense.
but if it does and if you’re betting on a spontaneous resistance movement then you might just seal your fate.
I think you’re right that most protest movements are liberal. I also think there’s a huge amount of resistance in the black and indigenous communities. They were all broken by COINTELPRO in the 60s/70s. I think there’s a possibility that there is movement to revitalize. It’s a race though.
That’s cool, I hadn’t heard of that group before! Thanks for sharing!
I hope you’re right, obviously, but I’m more pessimistic about the state of an organized Left to take on a fascist movement that controls the State. It’s not just about having a group or two either. It’s logistics about being coordinated, supplied, and disciplined. I have no idea but I doubt these groups are at that level. I think the race was lost a long time ago, movements of the 60’s and 70’s are long-since dead and the willingness of those groups hasn’t been seen in the US since. I think there will be some pushback but it won’t last.
And, besides local movements, if the West goes full fascist then there isn’t sadly another USSR power that will be able to defeat the fascist threat on a global level. At best we’d have some countries that will either be waiting to be inevitably invaded or militarily resisting invasion. But I admit I’m pessimistic about it, we just don’t have the same conditions as we did in WW2 because the West so successfully broke or isolated the growing Communist movements at home and abroad.
My initial point, however, is that the US doesn’t have the industry required to go full fascist. Remember that Italy and Germany went fascist first by industrializing to the point that they were outproducing all expectations and it took multiple countries to counter them. The US is nowhere near that and has no hope of getting there.
Facts! It isn’t just anarchists and black movements either. Communists, socialists, and socdems (so basically most flavors of anti-capitalism) are arming-up or at least learning how to shoot or breakdown a weapon to make inert (Socialist Rifle Association/John Brown Gun Clubs/Redneck Revolt). Also seeing more pro-2A orgs/groups for various minorities (two examples being Latino Rifle Association and Pink Pistols) getting more members. Now is the best time to support and/or join whichever ones that are active in the areas that folks are.
It is also a smart idea to get at least one or more guns and learn to use them. Also in the event that the libs somehow start banning things again, as the fascists and conservative bootlickers most certainly have plenty on their side already. Not about to let them have an easy time if any of them start pulling anything thinking the left is defenseless (as they still think real leftists are the same as the centrist libs). Even then, there are more liberals also starting to get guns too.
Could this result in a balkanization effect? Lots of exit talk in the last 10 years (caliexit, texit). Could conditions be reaching similar states that invoked things like The Hartford Convention?
My thinking is there would probably need to be more external intervention for that to a happen. Which I think aligns with history.
Balkanization is likely going to be forced by climate change making vast swathes of the US uninhabitable for suburbanites. That will create mass migrations of liberals and ghost towns will be taken up by armed groups. The major areas with access to water and farmland are going to end up with state militias setting up borders with those abandoned zones, and balkanization will reify through ideological struggle.
Honestly, it’s going to come down to deep state actors allying with BRICS powers to manage. The alternative is BRICS powers invading the USA to secure them, which will almost guarantee a nuclear incident. There are sane heads in the deep state around nuclear that have spent decades working to ensure they don’t go off. They will work with foreign intelligence as long as they are able to avoid losing the planet for their families and generations of their children.
I really think we’re entering an inflection point where there is sufficient critical mass that makes it possible for countries to band together and resist the empire. And the war in Ukraine has been the catalyst for this. The west ended up being sucked into a conflict on a scale it simply wasn’t prepared for. A huge chunk of the existing western military assets ended up being committed to Ukraine which necessarily weakened western grip on the west of the world. Meanwhile, the economic war on Russia resulted in the creation of a whole new economy that’s operating outside western control. BRICS is now a bigger economic bloc than the entire G7, and this trend will only accelerate now.
If we look to history, the USA should end up enacting military production mandates through a more overtly fascist formation. I question whether the USA has sufficient industrial capacity, even under centralized management, to make a difference. Clearly the USA has the fuel production capacity, as it’s become one of the largest producers in the last few years.
There’s a possibility that Mexico might have more manufacturing that the USA could appropriate for weapons production, but I still don’t think it would be enough.
Additionally, a fascist formation in the USA would be incredibly difficult due to the way the population is sprawled out. Brown shirts are only going to be effective in cities, which is exactly where the greatest population of resistance fighters will be. In the sprawl, it’ll be roving militias and vigilantes, but they will have to be incorporated with military intelligence to be effective at finding and disrupting resistance.
In short, unlike past movements, I don’t think the USA has a path out even through overt fascism.
That assumes there are organized and armed groups to even become resistance fighters. The US, and most of the world, doesn’t have the same growing, disciplined Communist organizing like it did pre- and even post-WW2. I don’t think there would be any meaningful armed resistance in US cities that could outlast even their own militarized police, much less a concerted effort that included neo-Nazi paramilitaries.
Even mass protests in US cities include mostly liberals. Due to lack of organizing or pacifist/unarmed ideals, they will either surely die or just join the Right. It might not go down that path, but if it does and if you’re betting on a spontaneous resistance movement then you might just seal your fate.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Not_Fucking_Around_Coalition does exist. Black Panthers organized resistance, though they suffered exactly as you describe. I think that a brownshirt movement will force the creation of armed resistance movements. We’ve already seen how the existence of the white nationalist movements have created the conditions for anarchist and black movements for self-defense.
I think you’re right that most protest movements are liberal. I also think there’s a huge amount of resistance in the black and indigenous communities. They were all broken by COINTELPRO in the 60s/70s. I think there’s a possibility that there is movement to revitalize. It’s a race though.
That’s cool, I hadn’t heard of that group before! Thanks for sharing!
I hope you’re right, obviously, but I’m more pessimistic about the state of an organized Left to take on a fascist movement that controls the State. It’s not just about having a group or two either. It’s logistics about being coordinated, supplied, and disciplined. I have no idea but I doubt these groups are at that level. I think the race was lost a long time ago, movements of the 60’s and 70’s are long-since dead and the willingness of those groups hasn’t been seen in the US since. I think there will be some pushback but it won’t last.
And, besides local movements, if the West goes full fascist then there isn’t sadly another USSR power that will be able to defeat the fascist threat on a global level. At best we’d have some countries that will either be waiting to be inevitably invaded or militarily resisting invasion. But I admit I’m pessimistic about it, we just don’t have the same conditions as we did in WW2 because the West so successfully broke or isolated the growing Communist movements at home and abroad.
My initial point, however, is that the US doesn’t have the industry required to go full fascist. Remember that Italy and Germany went fascist first by industrializing to the point that they were outproducing all expectations and it took multiple countries to counter them. The US is nowhere near that and has no hope of getting there.
That is true and a good point!
Facts! It isn’t just anarchists and black movements either. Communists, socialists, and socdems (so basically most flavors of anti-capitalism) are arming-up or at least learning how to shoot or breakdown a weapon to make inert (Socialist Rifle Association/John Brown Gun Clubs/Redneck Revolt). Also seeing more pro-2A orgs/groups for various minorities (two examples being Latino Rifle Association and Pink Pistols) getting more members. Now is the best time to support and/or join whichever ones that are active in the areas that folks are.
It is also a smart idea to get at least one or more guns and learn to use them. Also in the event that the libs somehow start banning things again, as the fascists and conservative bootlickers most certainly have plenty on their side already. Not about to let them have an easy time if any of them start pulling anything thinking the left is defenseless (as they still think real leftists are the same as the centrist libs). Even then, there are more liberals also starting to get guns too.
Could this result in a balkanization effect? Lots of exit talk in the last 10 years (caliexit, texit). Could conditions be reaching similar states that invoked things like The Hartford Convention?
My thinking is there would probably need to be more external intervention for that to a happen. Which I think aligns with history.
Balkanization is likely going to be forced by climate change making vast swathes of the US uninhabitable for suburbanites. That will create mass migrations of liberals and ghost towns will be taken up by armed groups. The major areas with access to water and farmland are going to end up with state militias setting up borders with those abandoned zones, and balkanization will reify through ideological struggle.
What happens to things like massive stockpiles of nuclear weapons is going to be a big question at that point.
Honestly, it’s going to come down to deep state actors allying with BRICS powers to manage. The alternative is BRICS powers invading the USA to secure them, which will almost guarantee a nuclear incident. There are sane heads in the deep state around nuclear that have spent decades working to ensure they don’t go off. They will work with foreign intelligence as long as they are able to avoid losing the planet for their families and generations of their children.
That seems plausible, but I wouldn’t underestimate just how irrational these people are either.
BRICS isn’t exactly anti-capitalist though :/
It’s not, but it doesn’t discriminate against socialist states which is a huge step forward.