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Cake day: June 14th, 2023

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  • Sure, you’re talking about messaging now, but that isn’t the context of the thread this sits in, where you very obviously implied she had no substantive policy contrasting her with Trump. I agree that messaging was apparently poor–the American electorate apparently cannot be expected to make even a minimal effort at diligence–but that is not the same as there being no policy. So I think the real lesson is that American voters are even dumber and lazier than the democrats give them credit for, which unfortunately is not conducive to shifting the Overton window leftwards for once.




  • Bud, I’m too tired to care about arguing about reality with you. The entire settler movement and likudnik side of Israel is fully aligned with and happy about Trump. Disappearance of Gaza and West Bank entirely was extremely unlikely under Harris and is very likely under Trump. As is actual US troops side by side with IDF in the Levant in a very obvious very different way than they have been so far. Lot of people, perhaps an entire people, are very pprobability going to die.





  • ??? It is literally impossible for any voter to not know the devil they chose. No, over 70 million voters actively chose to elect perhaps the most incompetent and transparently stupid president in history back into office, but with a well known and well documented playbook this time around on how literally entry metric of American life, from domestic policy to foreign policy, will be made worse to the sole benefit of big corporate actors and 1%ers. A whole bunch of others were too apathetic to be concerned by this.

    Voters ultimately made their choice. A lot of folks are going to die as a result, but unfortunately it won’t be limited to just the idiots that actually chose this.



  • You’ve said a lot here that I agree with, but ultimately the responsibility is on the voters to be competent, critical thinkers that at least attempt to be informed. And they (we) are not. But unfortunately this just appears to be an entropy point built into our current system. And it facilitates one party over the other. Republicans are an ideologically unified authoritarian block that denies critical and strategic thinking in its platform and is structured only to identify problems but not sustainable solutions. They’ve always been this. The current Democratic party, otoh, is a big tent party focused on long term solution plans to nuanced problems and has many stakeholders that are ideologically opposed such that actual compromise may be fundamentally impossible. I honestly don’t know if this CAN be overcome. It’s a tough spot to be in. What i do know is that the next 4 years, at a minimum, are going to be mad dash of regulatory capture and federal collapse the likes we haven’t seen since the 20s.





    1. her position wrt Israel and Palestine wasn’t clear when she was nominated (though I don’t think it was all that hard to anticipate, but here we are); (2) the upcoming vote isn’t for her nomination to the democratic ticket, is it?

    No one is saying they don’t wish the practical reality in which we live was better, but we are looking at two realistic choices right now. One choice will not only greatly worsen the situation and almost undoubtedly lead to more suffering and death in the Levant, it is also quite literally the highly preferred choice by Netanyahu. The other has in the past, before soliciting as many US votes as possible, at least displayed a willingness to criticize the Israeli government and modulate US policies regarding it. So I dunno what to tell you. At the end of the day, I’m pro-Palestinians not being murdered, and could give a fuck about signaling on social media, so I make practical choices to facilitate my as-many-Palestinians-as-possible-not-being-murdered preference. Maybe you don’t have that in common with me.



  • AI in health and medtech has been around and in the field for ages. However, two persistent challenges make roll out slow-- and they’re not going anywhere because of the stakes at hand.

    The first is just straight regulatory. Regulators don’t have a very good or very consistent working framework to apply to to these technologies, but that’s in part due to how vast the field is in terms of application. The second is somewhat related to the first but really is also very market driven, and that is the issue of explainability of outputs. Regulators generally want it of course, but also customers (i.e., doctors) don’t just want predictions/detections, but want and need to understand why a model “thinks” what it does. Doing that in a way that does not itself require significant training in the data and computer science underlying the particular model and architecture is often pretty damned hard.

    I think it’s an enormous oversimplification to say modern AI is just “fancy signal processing” unless all inference, including that done by humans, is also just signal processing. Modern AI applies rules it is given, explicitly or by virtue of complex pattern identification, to inputs to produce outputs according to those “given” rules. Now, what no current AI can really do is synthesize new rules uncoupled from the act of pattern matching. Effectively, a priori reasoning is still out of scope for the most part, but the reality is that that simply is not necessary for an enormous portion of the value proposition of “AI” to be realized.


  • Summary judgement is not a thing separate from a lawsuit. It’s literally a standard filling made in nearly every lawsuit (even if just as a hail mary). You referenced “beyond a reasonable doubt” earlier. This is also not the standard used in (US) civil cases–it’s typically a standard consisting of the preponderance of the evidence.

    I’m also not sure what you mean by “court approved documentation.” Different jurisdictions approach contract law differently, but courts don’t “approve” most contracts–parties allege there was a binding and contractual agreement, present their evidence to the court, and a mix of judge and jury determines whether under the jurisdictions laws and enforceable agreement occurred and how it can be enforced (i.e., are the obligations severable, what damages, etc.).


  • There’s plenty you could do if no label was produced with a sufficiently high confidence. These are continuous systems, so the idea of “rerunning” the model isn’t that crazy, but you could pair that with an automatic decrease in speed to generate more frames, stop the whole vehicle (safely of course), divert path, and I’m sure plenty more an actual domain and subject matter expert might come up with–or a whole team of them. But while we’re on the topic, it’s not really right to even label these confidence intervals as such–they’re just output weighting associated with respective levels. We’ve sort of decided they vaguely match up to something kind of sort approximate to confidence values but they aren’t based on a ground truth like I’m understanding your comment to imply–they entirely derive out of the trained model weights and their confluence. Don’t really have anywhere to go with that thought beyond the observation itself.