(Bloomberg) – India has surged to become the second-biggest supplier of restricted critical technologies to Russia, US and European officials said, highlighting the challenge in efforts to choke off exports fueling President Vladimir Putin’s war machine.
Indian exports of restricted items such as microchips, circuits and machine tools surpassed $60 million in both April and May, about double from earlier months this year, and leaped to $95 million in July, according to the officials, who asked not to be identified discussing private assessments. India is exceeded only by China.
Even more frustrating to Ukraine’s allies, some of them said, is that envoys who raise the issue have received little response from their Indian counterparts. India’s Ministry of External Affairs declined to comment when asked about the trend.
The most recent data means almost a fifth of the sensitive technology that goes into Russia’s military-industrial complex got there via India, the officials said.
Not that I’m going to disagree about the waning power of a dying empire, but India has historically charted its own course in regards to its international relations and dealings i.e. the Non-Aligned Movement of the Cold War.
It knows that it’s a critical partner of the US Security State in regards to China, as well as being a significant regional power of its own. So it can buck US power a bit more openly and flagrantly when it comes to securing their own national interests.
It’s also on average, a poorer country, relative to its size and influence. These trade deals are largely predicated upon India taking advantage of Russia’s weakened position as a global energy exporter, and getting cut rate deals on Russian oil imports.
I believe India is also a huge importer of Russian grain and fertilizer, which I imagine they’re also getting good deals on as well, given the current global dynamics.
You’ll never catch me defending Modi, but you also won’t catch me moralizing about developing, or underdeveloped, countries prioritizing their own energy and food supplies, over external concerns.
And I haven’t even touched on the practical national security ties India has with Russia as one of its larger military industrial partners. Even as India is now, or planning on, moving away from Russian arms, they still rely on Russian industry for help maintaining their existing kit. That’s just how arms exports works, it’s why the global arms trade is so heavily linked to alliances. As an importer of a complex weapon systems, you have to trust that the source country isn’t going to cut you off during a conflict, and can be relied upon to fulfill their production and service/support contracts. So for India to sever ties, or even openly embarrass Putin, could significantly weaken their national defense posture and preparedness.
Ironically, the war in Ukraine has shown Russia to be an unreliable partner because they have to redirect orders to their own front lines. This has been one of the important contributing factors for India to start moving away from Russian arms. But in the meantime, they still have a lot of Russian kit in active service.
And I say all this as an avid supporter of Ukraine, and someone who has long advocated for significantly larger, more advanced, and consistent, weapons transfers, and loosening restrictions on their use.
I included that last bit, because a lot of people tend to view acknowledging the fact that a lot of developing and poorer countries still rely on Russia for critical exports, and that shouldn’t be moralized, as somehow implying an implicit personal support of Russia or the invasion.
This is a very insightful comment, thank you. I absolutely agree with most of your points. Though one minor disagreement I’d have: it wasn’t Trump who brought on the waning of US soft power, but US’s failure in Afghanistan/Iraq/Yemen during 2nd Obama term.
Ultimately the expense in forging the US influence overseas during the Bush era came at the cost of ignoring those back home. Trump capitalized on all that resentment. In fact he still is riding on it. Coinicdentally Its a lesson Modi needs to learn from his recent election result at home too.
Thanks, and you’re welcome. Glad it was useful.
Trump is a symptom, not the cause. And while he most likely accelerated aspects of the decline, no, he didn’t trigger it.
But neither did those wars, they’re just what happens during an empire’s death, pointless wars, death, and violence. An angry dying man’s lashing out if you will.
Again, symptoms, yes, but not the cause.
I’ve already written a long enough comment for one day, but there’s plenty of academic writings on the subject if you’re interested.